SUPABOWWW Preview

As I'm sure you're all aware, one of the greatest days of the sports year is quite nearly upon us: THE SUPABOWWWW. Is it Rodgers' time to shine, or will Big Ben continue to carve his legacy?



Some of you may recall that I have picked the Packers to win, but let's take a closer look. This is Pittsburgh's third Superbowl appearance in seven years; they're 2-0 in the big game in those years, and 10-2 in the post-season overall. They definitely have the experience as a team, but also have Roethlisberger himself. Experienced leadership can definitely make a difference.

It's also worth noting that in those seven seasons, Roethlisberger has 25 game-winning drives and 19 fourth-quarter comebacks; Rodgers only has 5 game-winning drives and 3 fourth-quarter comebacks across three seasons. Obviously Roethlisberger has more seasons behind him, but it's clear that the season averages there don't match up.

That said, Rodgers has been playing out of his mind. In the three post-season games for the Packers this year, here are his stats: 70.9% completion rate, 790 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, average QB rating of 109.2. Roethlisberger has only played two post-season games this year, but there is a clear statistical difference: 56.8% completion rate, 359 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, average QB rating of just 75.5. It's also clear that the Pack have momentum on their side, having won five consecutive elimination games-- they had to win their last two games in the regular season to make the play-offs. Not only that, but they have beaten three very hot teams on the road to get here: the Eagles, the Falcons, and the Bears (who I would contend are the weakest of the three, but they still played well). The Steelers, on the other hand, beat two weak teams to finish the regular season (Carolina and Cleveland) to then face, at home, a good Baltimore team and an inconsistent and overrated (in my opinion) Jets team. The Packers had the harder road to travel, and have shown their grit.

A few last offensive considerations: the Packers have a more explosive offense when they can run the ball, and I think they have a stronger offensive line. But the Steelers have a much more consistent running game, and this opens a lot of options for them. Rodgers loves playing indoors, and I think he has the advantage here. Packers have two deep-ball threats: Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Steelers only have one: Hines Ward. They both have good tight ends in Heath Miller and Andrew Quarless, but I'm not sure how effective either will be going against great linebackers on both teams.

So... speaking of defense. The Steelers are well-known for their staunch defense, particularly against the run, what with Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. The problem is that these two defenses look fairly similar, as well they ought: Dom Capers and Dick LeBeau, the Green Bay and Pittsburgh defensive coordinators, worked together in Pittsburgh in the early '90s when Bill Cowher became head coach. They both run 3-4 defenses with complicated blitz packages, and both teams have the personnel to pull it off. That said, the Pack favors zone and struggle with man-to-man. In terms of defending the big play, I think the Pack wins out with cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams. Williams already has three interceptions this post-season, one returned for a TD. Overall, the Packers' turnover differential is +3, whereas the Steelers are even at 0.

So what needs to happen:

...for Green Bay to win?
Two things: They must force turnovers and get to Roethlisberger early and often. Keep Big Ben off the field, and keep Rodgers in command on the field; you don't want to face Roethlisberger in the fourth quarter. Get on top early and be relentless in the pass rush, but keep an eye out for the run.

...for Pittsburgh to win?
Remember when I said that Green Bay favors zone? Find the seams and exploit them. Force them to play man-to-man, find the match-up you want, then go over their heads. Beware the blitz though: get rid of the ball quickly early on, make them play back a little, and don't give up on the run (which is not a likely scenario, anyway). Score early and keep Rodgers off the field. He's less dominant in the fourth quarter, but the Jets nearly came back in the championship game, and the Packers are certainly more capable than the Jets.

Summary:

With Polamalu at less-than-full health, James Starks will make sure the ground attack is respected, opening the playbook for Green Bay. In the post-season, Green Bay has more plays of 20+ yards than any team, and this trend will continue. The defense will help by securing turnovers. Rodgers will lead the Pack to a 23-20 victory by being fast and effective on offense, scoring early against a tough defense.